Two financing is planned (2)
Daniel and Kahn studies psychology to lead gracefully into economics, his main research results lie in the decision-making process under the uncertain state. He thinks the mankind makes policy and is influenced by people's psychology, there are systemic differences with the prediction of the standard economic theory. Kahn's graceful research has solved the problem that the traditional economics theory can't solve - -How to come to explain the realistic middleman's unrational economic behaviour.
"Though people know, throw coin all probability that positive and negative appear 50, but when present numerous front continuously, people always think the probability presenting reverse side next is very great. " Kahn these kind of people's " Unrational " As the research object. His view theory (p r o s p e c t s t h e o r y) Think: In actual life, people, to while carrying on the judgement or making policy under the uncertain condition, because the environment, time, culture background that everyone is in are different, they go on, judge and make policy at existing view, can appear, take a part for the whole often so, the child is father of the man,etc. suppose different behaviors with the economics theory. Kahn expresses the theory of behavioral economics gracefully through illustrating.
Example one: As to the same job, provide two kinds of salary standards: 50 ten thousand yuan for a kind of annual pay; One kind is that basic annual pay is lower than 50 ten thousand yuan, in addition the project to deduct a percentage. The conservative person may choose the first kind of scheme, because the risk of the latter is obviously greater than the former.
Therefore can draw the conclusion: When people predict in the face of the risk, that took notice of is to win or fail and succeed in or fail more, it is a change of the wealth, but not the amount of the final wealth. The bigger the risk to be undertaken alone is, the more compensation what he needs is. Because the psychological endurance to the risk of different persons is different, result in confirming and the income not confirmed does not wait for prices.
Example two: As to two kinds of things of coffee cup and chocolate, the words getting the coffee cup first, the person of 90 will think the cup more costly than chocolate; And if get chocolates first, the person of 90 will think chocolates more costly than the coffee cup.
Produce two reason that situation produce these, people unwilling thing got to take go thing received to change, so the thing got first is good.
Example three: When people should have a piece of marshland, would like to pay 247 dollars; And while selling one's own marshland, demand to compensate 1044 dollars. Likewise, in order to get the mail services of one area, the service charge that everybody would like to pay is 22 dollars, and should dismiss from the existing mail service of this area, the amount of money of the compensation which everybody required has reached 96 dollars.
In this way, can get a basic conclusion: Whom people lie in most thing that they get already, just as China one old saying" difficult to draw the pan " . The longer the time to occupy is, the greater the lost agony is, so it is apt to regain the difficult problem to cause and offer. Usually come and say, the thing that is already got loses again, with comparing by something, the former's agony should be far greater than the latter.
Kahn's graceful research is that one of the domain of economics is broken through, it is unusually close that it contacts realistic economic life, economic behaviour. After understanding behavioral economics theory, when you see again someone is in order to save 5 yuan and spend the petrol fee of 6 yuan going to the supermarket to buy several packs of toilet paper by car, your idea will be and very different before.
Then, can the behavioral economics theory be used for guiding and managing money matters? In a book of Chinese the Four Books and the Five Classics>, our ancestor has a theory the same as modern behavioral economics, "gentleman plain their person walk, getting unwilling outside it. Gentleman Juyi in order to wait life, little People's Bank of China dangerous by sheer good luck. So the gentleman has not entered the contented here but not! " The gentleman here means according to one's own ability, Ann watches over the person whose duty did things, and know perfectly well one's own ability is insufficient, persist in taking the risk of acting to hope what can benefit by sheer good luck is the vilain.
The anchor-person of the first channel for finance and economics " today stock market " of Shanghai TV Station once heard from a teenager, narrate his father incline his all fry and buy stocks, just meet the bear market for several years in succession unfortunately, suffer heavy losses. Father becomes of few words, depressed, the originally happy change because of father's temper of atmosphere of family, become wretched, dull and dreary. That upset family is because of the blow that is kept falling even more, do they fear whether father's body can persevere and collapse again? The teenager can convince his father by patient analysis in the program while appealing for a host, rescue his family. From the viewpoint of financing, the mistake that this father makes is not to assess one's own psychological endurance in advance, incline all purchase stock its think heavy to earn one, attempt in order to do risk by sheer good luck, have done the thing beyond duty. Just think if this father confirms investment amount according to one's own psychological endurance, then losses are greater and unlikelier to influence the family life. Can be compared to, cost several lottery ticket of buying, even if nothing prize complete loss of King, it is the same that you will not mind either.
Behavioral economics is a practical science, lie in how to turn it into realistic productivity the most key place of appearance of an economic theory. But up till now, the economist of our country does not still deepen study on behavioral economics very much, more but still at the elementary discussion stage to the theory, it is less to contact realistic economic life.
Wrong or too many people's psychological endurance decline of disposing making of assets, weak in mind and apt to cause the behavioral disorder of investment. For avoid, initiate wrong behavioral resolution, need psychological test risk endurance to produce people, confirm its disposition amount that can be accepted. Gather together and manage money matters triumphantly and use the behavioral economics theory achievement of winning Nobel Prize for economics for managing money matters the psychological test of planning for the first time, and for example the design: 1)Outdoor activity that you like 1, for example maritime sport, high altitude bounce, climb the mountain, stimulate, move about 2, repel La defy usually, but should conform with safe 3, only want to look for a quiet place and is not bothered 2) first If stock market drop 30%, you stock of hand drop 30% too, 1, buy in some stock you, the low cost of the stand, waited for the stock market to resume 2, hold, did not move 3, all to sell, was far away from stock market 3) from then on Have a get-together with the friend, 2 arrangements 1, often taking your suggestion as the core of activity of having a get-together, all discuss, then seek the common understanding 3, you do not like offering advice, so as not to be blamed wrong
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